CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Nov 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels this period as Region 2205 (N15E25,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1 flare at 07/1726 UTC.  Associated
with the X-class flare were Type II (602 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps
along with a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 07/1808 UTC.  WSA/ENLIL modeling of the event
shows a partially Earth-directed component that is expected to impact
the geomagnetic field early to midday on 10 November.  Other activity
included a C1 flare, also from Region 2205, at 07/2348 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep (829 km/s).  Slight penumbral growth and
consolidation was observed in the intermediate and trailing portions of
Region 2205.  The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in
decay.  New Region 2207 (S08E71, Hax/alpha) rotated around the SE limb
and was numbered during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) with a
continued chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the
next three days (08-10 Nov).  Region 2205 continues to be the likely
source for significant flare activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (08-10 Nov).  There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm level due to activity associated with
Region 2205.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced with wind speeds ranging
from 427 km/s to 533 km/s.  Total field ranged from 4 nT to 11 nT while
the Bz component was between +9 nT and -8 nT.  Phi angle remained
consistently in a negative (towards) sector during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for days
one-two (08-09 Nov) with solar wind speeds in the 400-500 km/s range. 
By early to midday on day three (10 Nov), a indirect impact from the 07
Nov CME is expected to further enhance the geomagnetic field.  WSA/ENLIL
modelling of the event estimates solar wind speeds approaching 600-700
km/s.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one-two (08-09 Nov).  The arrival of the CME associated with the X1
flare on 07 Nov is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early to
midday on day three (10 Nov) causing active to major storm conditions
(G1-G2, Minor to Moderate).

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Nov 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 08-Nov 10 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 08-Nov 10 2014

            Nov 08     Nov 09     Nov 10
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        1          2          3     
06-09UT        2          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          5 (G1)
12-15UT        2          2          6 (G2)
15-18UT        2          1          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          1          4     
21-00UT        3          2          4     

Rationale: G1 to G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on
day three (10 Nov) with the arrival of the 07 Nov CME associated with an
X1 flare from Region 2205.

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